TV and Streaming Prediction Markets

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix officially releases a new episode of Stranger Things (i.e., an episode that was not previously available to stream on Netflix) between market creation and January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, an “episode” must be listed as a distinct episode of Stranger Things on Netflix and be playable for general subscribers in the United States. A behind-the-scenes featurette, documentary, trailer, recap, cast interview, deleted scenes compilation, or other bonus content will not count unless it is clearly presented by Netflix as an official numbered or titled episode of the series. If Netflix releases an alternate cut, extended cut, or “secret” version of an already-released episode, it will not count unless it is listed as a separate episode entry on Netflix. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Stranger Things title page on Netflix (episode list and availability), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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This market will resolve according to the show ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global “TV Shows” list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Entertainment → TV Shows. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. A search term that clearly refers to a term listed in this market (for example, abbreviations, alternate spellings, specified seasons, or closely related phrasing) will count toward the term as listed in this market. If a search term clearly refers to multiple terms listed in this market, this market will resolve according to the term that comes first alphabetically as listed in this market. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.

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Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve according to the views figure of the show that this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show, according to Netflix. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. If the reported views figure falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will not consider hours viewed. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used to determine the final figure.

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Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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This market will resolve according to the company that is officially announced as having been awarded, or as being the party who will hold, the U.S. English-language broadcast rights for the 2030 FIFA World Cup, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement from FIFA or the awarded company will qualify, regardless of whether or when the relevant rights are legally conferred. Rights awarded to a subsidiary, division, or affiliated network/platform of a listed company will count toward that listed company (e.g. rights awarded to a listed company's streaming service, cable network, or other owned outlet will count toward the parent company listed in this market). If a company listed in this market acquires another company listed in this market, this market will resolve according to the acquiring company (the new parent company). If two or more companies listed in this market merge, and the resulting entity retains or adopts the name of one of those listed companies, this market will resolve to that company. If the resulting entity uses a new or combined name that cannot be clearly attributed to any one of the listed companies, this market will resolve in favor of whichever of the merging companies’ names comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. This market will resolve according to the party announced as holding the U.S. English-language broadcast rights. If those rights are split by medium among multiple parties, this market will resolve according to the company awarded the linear television rights. If the announced deal includes no linear television rights, this market will resolve according to the company awarded the streaming rights. If the rights are awarded as part of a bundled deal covering both English- and Spanish-language broadcasts, the company or companies confirmed to hold the English-language portion will qualify, regardless of what other rights are included in the deal. If the announced deal involves multiple companies jointly holding or sharing the English-language rights for the same medium, this market will resolve in favor of whichever involved company's name comes first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the first announced conferral of rights. This market will not consider whether rights are later conferred upon another party, or whether the first deal is later revoked, withdrawn, or is otherwise not brought into legal operation. If no rights deal has been officially announced by the specified date, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from FIFA or the awarded company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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