TV and Streaming Prediction Markets

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix officially releases a new episode of Stranger Things (i.e., an episode that was not previously available to stream on Netflix) between market creation and January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, an “episode” must be listed as a distinct episode of Stranger Things on Netflix and be playable for general subscribers in the United States. A behind-the-scenes featurette, documentary, trailer, recap, cast interview, deleted scenes compilation, or other bonus content will not count unless it is clearly presented by Netflix as an official numbered or titled episode of the series. If Netflix releases an alternate cut, extended cut, or “secret” version of an already-released episode, it will not count unless it is listed as a separate episode entry on Netflix. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Stranger Things title page on Netflix (episode list and availability), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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This market will resolve according to the show ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global “TV Shows” list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Entertainment → TV Shows. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. A search term that clearly refers to a term listed in this market (for example, abbreviations, alternate spellings, specified seasons, or closely related phrasing) will count toward the term as listed in this market. If a search term clearly refers to multiple terms listed in this market, this market will resolve according to the term that comes first alphabetically as listed in this market. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.

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"Beat Luke Littler" is a live Netflix special scheduled for October 30, 2026, at 7:00 PM GMT (3:00 PM ET). On the show, amateur challengers each play a single leg of 501 against Luke Littler for a £501,000 prize. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any contestant beats Luke Littler on the live broadcast of "Beat Luke Littler". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A contestant beats Luke Littler if they win a leg of darts against him and the show officially declares the contestant the winner of that leg on its live broadcast. The leg is judged under the format the show uses, including any handicap, head start, or modified rules the show applies. Any person other than Luke Littler who plays a leg against him on the official broadcast counts as a contestant. Legs played in qualifying tournaments, practice, warm-ups, or any other setting outside the official live broadcast will not count. A leg that the show voids or orders replayed before a winner is declared will not count. Retractions, disqualifications, or prize forfeitures made after a contestant has been officially declared the winner of a leg will not be considered, and whether the contestant receives the prize money will not be considered. If "Beat Luke Littler" is cancelled or postponed beyond November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if Luke Littler does not play a leg on the broadcast, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official live broadcast of "Beat Luke Littler" on Netflix; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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This market will resolve according to the company that is officially announced as having been awarded, or as being the party who will hold, the U.S. English-language broadcast rights for the 2030 FIFA World Cup, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement from FIFA or the awarded company will qualify, regardless of whether or when the relevant rights are legally conferred. Rights awarded to a subsidiary, division, or affiliated network/platform of a listed company will count toward that listed company (e.g. rights awarded to a listed company's streaming service, cable network, or other owned outlet will count toward the parent company listed in this market). If a company listed in this market acquires another company listed in this market, this market will resolve according to the acquiring company (the new parent company). If two or more companies listed in this market merge, and the resulting entity retains or adopts the name of one of those listed companies, this market will resolve to that company. If the resulting entity uses a new or combined name that cannot be clearly attributed to any one of the listed companies, this market will resolve in favor of whichever of the merging companies’ names comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. This market will resolve according to the party announced as holding the U.S. English-language broadcast rights. If those rights are split by medium among multiple parties, this market will resolve according to the company awarded the linear television rights. If the announced deal includes no linear television rights, this market will resolve according to the company awarded the streaming rights. If the rights are awarded as part of a bundled deal covering both English- and Spanish-language broadcasts, the company or companies confirmed to hold the English-language portion will qualify, regardless of what other rights are included in the deal. If the announced deal involves multiple companies jointly holding or sharing the English-language rights for the same medium, this market will resolve in favor of whichever involved company's name comes first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the first announced conferral of rights. This market will not consider whether rights are later conferred upon another party, or whether the first deal is later revoked, withdrawn, or is otherwise not brought into legal operation. If no rights deal has been officially announced by the specified date, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from FIFA or the awarded company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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